Forty years of score-based soccer match outcome prediction: an experimental review

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21230%2F22%3A00350972" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21230/22:00350972 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab029" target="_blank" >10.1093/imaman/dpab029</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forty years of score-based soccer match outcome prediction: an experimental review

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We investigate the state-of-the-art in score-based soccer match outcome modelling to identify the top-performing methods across diverse classes of existing approaches to the problem. Namely, we bring together various statistical methods based on Poisson and Weibull distributions and several general ranking algorithms (Elo, Steph ratings, Gaussian-OD ratings) as well as domain-specific rating systems (Berrar ratings, pi-ratings). We review, reimplement and experimentally compare these diverse competitors altogether on the largest database of soccer results available to identify true leaders. Our results reveal that the individual predictions, as well as the overall performances, are very similar across the top models tested, likely suggesting the limits of this generic approach to score-based match outcome modelling. No study of a similar scale has previously been done.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forty years of score-based soccer match outcome prediction: an experimental review

Popis výsledku anglicky

We investigate the state-of-the-art in score-based soccer match outcome modelling to identify the top-performing methods across diverse classes of existing approaches to the problem. Namely, we bring together various statistical methods based on Poisson and Weibull distributions and several general ranking algorithms (Elo, Steph ratings, Gaussian-OD ratings) as well as domain-specific rating systems (Berrar ratings, pi-ratings). We review, reimplement and experimentally compare these diverse competitors altogether on the largest database of soccer results available to identify true leaders. Our results reveal that the individual predictions, as well as the overall performances, are very similar across the top models tested, likely suggesting the limits of this generic approach to score-based match outcome modelling. No study of a similar scale has previously been done.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA20-29260S" target="_blank" >GA20-29260S: Sdružené učení a optimalizace portfolií</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics

ISSN

1471-678X

e-ISSN

1471-6798

Svazek periodika

33

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

1-18

Kód UT WoS článku

000736089400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85118940278