Macroeconomic Costs Of The Energy Transition In The Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21230%2F25%3A00386023" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21230/25:00386023 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68407700:21730/25:00386023

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.37355/acta-2025/2-04" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.37355/acta-2025/2-04</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.37355/acta-2025/2-04" target="_blank" >10.37355/acta-2025/2-04</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Macroeconomic Costs Of The Energy Transition In The Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Carbon neutrality and the entire energy transformation, especially of electricity supplies, lead to a change in the current energy paradigms. The past modelling approaches can lead to errors if not modified properly. In this article we estimate the lower-bound of direct macroeconomic costs of the proposed electric energy mix change in the Czech Republic. Methods: We augment the physical electric energy balance model with seasonally (monthly adjusted) estimated hourly average electric prices to show the economic difference between the yearly energy balance and import costs due to seasonal price patterns. This simple economic model is then applied on proposed future energy mix stemming from State Energy Policy (SEK) that does not consider the seasonal price patterns at all, and the paper goal is to provide the approximate magnitude of such an error. Our backward simulation imposing past prices and seasonal patterns on future energy mix is conservative, i.e., provides lower-bound estimate of the economic effect but also allows us to avoid future price and future consumption prediction errors. We show that the envisaged change in production mix leads to a direct increase in net imports that are comparable to the value above 0.5% GDP. When considering the fiscal multiplier, the total negative impact shall be around 1% GDP, annually. As the Czech economic growth is not stellar, the implied GDP decrease can further worse economic prospects.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Macroeconomic Costs Of The Energy Transition In The Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Carbon neutrality and the entire energy transformation, especially of electricity supplies, lead to a change in the current energy paradigms. The past modelling approaches can lead to errors if not modified properly. In this article we estimate the lower-bound of direct macroeconomic costs of the proposed electric energy mix change in the Czech Republic. Methods: We augment the physical electric energy balance model with seasonally (monthly adjusted) estimated hourly average electric prices to show the economic difference between the yearly energy balance and import costs due to seasonal price patterns. This simple economic model is then applied on proposed future energy mix stemming from State Energy Policy (SEK) that does not consider the seasonal price patterns at all, and the paper goal is to provide the approximate magnitude of such an error. Our backward simulation imposing past prices and seasonal patterns on future energy mix is conservative, i.e., provides lower-bound estimate of the economic effect but also allows us to avoid future price and future consumption prediction errors. We show that the envisaged change in production mix leads to a direct increase in net imports that are comparable to the value above 0.5% GDP. When considering the fiscal multiplier, the total negative impact shall be around 1% GDP, annually. As the Czech economic growth is not stellar, the implied GDP decrease can further worse economic prospects.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

ACTA VŠFS

ISSN

1802-7946

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

19

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

22

Strana od-do

155-176

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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