Reserve Provision From Electric Vehicles: Aggregate Boundaries and Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21230%2F25%3A00386171" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21230/25:00386171 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2025.3539863" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2025.3539863</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2025.3539863" target="_blank" >10.1109/TPWRS.2025.3539863</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Reserve Provision From Electric Vehicles: Aggregate Boundaries and Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Controlled charging of electric vehicles, EVs, is a major potential source of flexibility to facilitate the integration of variable renewable energy and reduce the need for stationary energy storage. To offer system services from EVs, fleet aggregators must address the uncertainty of individual driving and charging behaviour. This paper introduces a means of forecasting the service volume available from EVs by considering several EV batteries as one conceptual battery with aggregate power and energy boundaries. Aggregation avoids the difficult prediction of individual driving behaviour. The predictability of the boundaries is demonstrated using a multiple linear regression model which achieves a normalised root mean square error of 20%-40% for a fleet of 1,000 EVs. A two-stage stochastic model predictive control algorithm is used to schedule reserve services on a day-ahead basis addressing risk trade-offs by including Conditional Value-at-Risk in the objective function. A case study with 1.2 million domestic EV charge records from Great Britain illustrates that increasing fleet size improves prediction accuracy, thereby increasing reserve revenues and decreasing an aggregator's operational costs. For fleet sizes of 400 or above, cost reductions plateau at 60% compared to uncontrolled charging, with an average of 1.8 kW of reserve provided per vehicle.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Reserve Provision From Electric Vehicles: Aggregate Boundaries and Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Popis výsledku anglicky

Controlled charging of electric vehicles, EVs, is a major potential source of flexibility to facilitate the integration of variable renewable energy and reduce the need for stationary energy storage. To offer system services from EVs, fleet aggregators must address the uncertainty of individual driving and charging behaviour. This paper introduces a means of forecasting the service volume available from EVs by considering several EV batteries as one conceptual battery with aggregate power and energy boundaries. Aggregation avoids the difficult prediction of individual driving behaviour. The predictability of the boundaries is demonstrated using a multiple linear regression model which achieves a normalised root mean square error of 20%-40% for a fleet of 1,000 EVs. A two-stage stochastic model predictive control algorithm is used to schedule reserve services on a day-ahead basis addressing risk trade-offs by including Conditional Value-at-Risk in the objective function. A case study with 1.2 million domestic EV charge records from Great Britain illustrates that increasing fleet size improves prediction accuracy, thereby increasing reserve revenues and decreasing an aggregator's operational costs. For fleet sizes of 400 or above, cost reductions plateau at 60% compared to uncontrolled charging, with an average of 1.8 kW of reserve provided per vehicle.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EH22_008%2F0004590" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004590: Robotika a pokročilá průmyslová výroba</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

ISSN

0885-8950

e-ISSN

1558-0679

Svazek periodika

40

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

4081-4092

Kód UT WoS článku

001560302400005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85217687377