Optimizing the Selection of a Portfolio of Transport Infra-structure Investment Projects Including Elements of Uncer-tainty Modeled Using Fuzzy Logic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Optimizing the Selection of a Portfolio of Transport Infra-structure Investment Projects Including Elements of Uncer-tainty Modeled Using Fuzzy Logic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Along with the development of the society, emphasis is placed on the moderniza-tion and development of quality transport infrastructure. Investing in infrastructure is implemented using investment projects, which are financed in the vast majority from public sources. The amount of the available budget is usually lower than the amount of funds needed to implement all the projects being prepared, and therefore it is necessary to select a portfolio of investment projects for implementation. Dur-ing the selection process, indicators representing the quantified societal benefits re-sulting from the implementation of projects, as well as their financial demands and the available budget, are assessed. However, the selection is carried out in the initial phase of the preparation of investment projects, and due to the preparation period of several years, the implementation takes place in a few years. The development of the economic situation has been very turbulent and fluctuating in recent years, while the situation at the time of project implementation often does not correspond to the expected market development in the initial phase of project preparation. As a result, the amount of financial indicators and the estimated available budget at the time of implementation are significantly different than what was assumed during the selection. This can have a negative effect on the output of the optimization of the selection of the project portfolio from the point of view of fulfilling the overall societal benefit. The aim of the article is to present an approach to optimizing the selection of a portfolio of transport infrastructure investment projects for implementation, includ-ing elements of uncertainty in the area of the available budget and the estimated amount of funds needed to implement individual investment projects. Uncertainty is modeled using fuzzy logic, and the goal of optimization is to maximize the cumu-lative value of social benefits represented by monitored indicators.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Optimizing the Selection of a Portfolio of Transport Infra-structure Investment Projects Including Elements of Uncer-tainty Modeled Using Fuzzy Logic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Along with the development of the society, emphasis is placed on the moderniza-tion and development of quality transport infrastructure. Investing in infrastructure is implemented using investment projects, which are financed in the vast majority from public sources. The amount of the available budget is usually lower than the amount of funds needed to implement all the projects being prepared, and therefore it is necessary to select a portfolio of investment projects for implementation. Dur-ing the selection process, indicators representing the quantified societal benefits re-sulting from the implementation of projects, as well as their financial demands and the available budget, are assessed. However, the selection is carried out in the initial phase of the preparation of investment projects, and due to the preparation period of several years, the implementation takes place in a few years. The development of the economic situation has been very turbulent and fluctuating in recent years, while the situation at the time of project implementation often does not correspond to the expected market development in the initial phase of project preparation. As a result, the amount of financial indicators and the estimated available budget at the time of implementation are significantly different than what was assumed during the selection. This can have a negative effect on the output of the optimization of the selection of the project portfolio from the point of view of fulfilling the overall societal benefit. The aim of the article is to present an approach to optimizing the selection of a portfolio of transport infrastructure investment projects for implementation, includ-ing elements of uncertainty in the area of the available budget and the estimated amount of funds needed to implement individual investment projects. Uncertainty is modeled using fuzzy logic, and the goal of optimization is to maximize the cumu-lative value of social benefits represented by monitored indicators.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economics

ISBN

978-80-11-04132-8

ISSN

2788-3965

e-ISSN

2788-3965

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

166-173

Název nakladatele

Česká společnost pro operační výzkum

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

13. 9. 2023

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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