Application of ARIMA Model to Forecast Gold Price in Vietnam

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Application of ARIMA Model to Forecast Gold Price in Vietnam

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper is dealing with the analysis of the gold price in Vietnam. In line with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the prices of gold have reached very high level. The gold started to be very attractive and safe investment. Therefore, investors are always looking forward to the research analysis related to the future price of gold. One of the possible methods for the prediction of gold price is ARIMA model historically developed by George Box and Gwilym Jenkins 1976. The paper will use this model for the forecast of gold price in Vietnam. Based on the comprehensive analysis the paper come to the conclusion that how investors could avoid the risks related the price volatility in the international market with gold and as well how this development will influence the prices of gold in Vietnam in the forward market. The forecast Arima (5,1,5) model is excellent in this case with the forecast error is about 3.46%.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Application of ARIMA Model to Forecast Gold Price in Vietnam

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper is dealing with the analysis of the gold price in Vietnam. In line with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the prices of gold have reached very high level. The gold started to be very attractive and safe investment. Therefore, investors are always looking forward to the research analysis related to the future price of gold. One of the possible methods for the prediction of gold price is ARIMA model historically developed by George Box and Gwilym Jenkins 1976. The paper will use this model for the forecast of gold price in Vietnam. Based on the comprehensive analysis the paper come to the conclusion that how investors could avoid the risks related the price volatility in the international market with gold and as well how this development will influence the prices of gold in Vietnam in the forward market. The forecast Arima (5,1,5) model is excellent in this case with the forecast error is about 3.46%.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50206 - Finance

Projekt

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Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Conference Proceedings The 11th International Days of Statistics and Economics

ISBN

978-80-87990-12-4

ISSN

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e-ISSN

neuvedeno

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

469-477

Název nakladatele

Melandrium

Místo vydání

Slaný

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

14. 9. 2017

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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