Minimum description length and multi-criteria decision analysis in predictive modelling

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28140%2F25%3A63596478" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28140/25:63596478 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=10849532" target="_blank" >https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=10849532</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3532815" target="_blank" >10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3532815</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Minimum description length and multi-criteria decision analysis in predictive modelling

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Accurate model selection is essential in predictive modelling across various domains, significantly impacting decision-making and resource allocation. Despite extensive research, the model selection process remains challenging. This work aims to integrate the Minimum Description Length principle with the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to enhance the selection of forecasting machine learning models. The proposed MDL-MCDA framework combines the MDL principle, which balances model complexity and data fit, with the MCDA, which incorporates multiple evaluation criteria to address conflicting error measurements. Four datasets from diverse domains, including software engineering (effort estimation), healthcare (glucose level prediction), finance (GDP prediction), and stock market prediction, were used to validate the framework. Various regression models and feed-forward neural networks were evaluated using criteria such as MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and Adjusted R2. We employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these criteria. We conclude that the integration of MDL and MCDA significantly improved model selection across all datasets. The cubic polynomial regression model and the multi-layer perceptron models outperformed other models in terms of AHP score and MDL criterion. Specifically, the MDL-MCDA approach provided a more nuanced evaluation, ensuring the selected models effectively balanced complexity and predictive accuracy.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Minimum description length and multi-criteria decision analysis in predictive modelling

Popis výsledku anglicky

Accurate model selection is essential in predictive modelling across various domains, significantly impacting decision-making and resource allocation. Despite extensive research, the model selection process remains challenging. This work aims to integrate the Minimum Description Length principle with the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to enhance the selection of forecasting machine learning models. The proposed MDL-MCDA framework combines the MDL principle, which balances model complexity and data fit, with the MCDA, which incorporates multiple evaluation criteria to address conflicting error measurements. Four datasets from diverse domains, including software engineering (effort estimation), healthcare (glucose level prediction), finance (GDP prediction), and stock market prediction, were used to validate the framework. Various regression models and feed-forward neural networks were evaluated using criteria such as MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and Adjusted R2. We employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the relative importance of these criteria. We conclude that the integration of MDL and MCDA significantly improved model selection across all datasets. The cubic polynomial regression model and the multi-layer perceptron models outperformed other models in terms of AHP score and MDL criterion. Specifically, the MDL-MCDA approach provided a more nuanced evaluation, ensuring the selected models effectively balanced complexity and predictive accuracy.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

IEEE Access

ISSN

2169-3536

e-ISSN

2169-3536

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Neuveden

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

20

Strana od-do

19388-19407

Kód UT WoS článku

001411998400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85216106174