The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540-a worst case

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F14%3A00496503" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/14:00496503 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14310/14:00073833

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540-a worst case

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring-summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km(2), we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540-a worst case

Popis výsledku anglicky

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring-summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km(2), we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

125

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3-4

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

349-363

Kód UT WoS článku

000339970700005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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