Links between circulation indices and precipitation in the Mediterranean in an ensemble of regional climate models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F16%3A00447450" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/16:00447450 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68378289:_____/16:00441924

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1381-6" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1381-6</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1381-6" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-015-1381-6</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Links between circulation indices and precipitation in the Mediterranean in an ensemble of regional climate models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean is related to atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). This study examines ability of an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations to reproduce observed links between these circulation indices and precipitation, as well as how these links may change in the late twenty-first century. We focus on the winter season and differences in precipitation amounts on the highest and lowest 25 % of days according to a given index. The relationships are evaluated against the E-OBS data set for 1961–1990. The observed pattern of differences in precipitation between positive and negative phases is generally similar for MO and NAO, which relates to the high correlation between these indices. Most regional climate models (RCMs) simulate links between the circulation indices and precipitation over most of the Mediterranean area reasonably well, especially for theMO andWeMO indices. The RCM with the largest deficiencies in reproducing the links is HadRM for all indices. The spatial patterns of differences in daily precipitation under positive and negative phases of the circulation indices for the future scenario (2070–2099) are similar to those for the control climate for all indices. This suggests that NAO, MO and WeMO are likely to play similar roles in affecting precipitation in the Mediterranean also in the future. However, increased NAO and decreased WeMO index, projected in most examined RCMs for the late twenty-first century in winter, may affect overall precipitation patterns.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Links between circulation indices and precipitation in the Mediterranean in an ensemble of regional climate models

Popis výsledku anglicky

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean is related to atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). This study examines ability of an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations to reproduce observed links between these circulation indices and precipitation, as well as how these links may change in the late twenty-first century. We focus on the winter season and differences in precipitation amounts on the highest and lowest 25 % of days according to a given index. The relationships are evaluated against the E-OBS data set for 1961–1990. The observed pattern of differences in precipitation between positive and negative phases is generally similar for MO and NAO, which relates to the high correlation between these indices. Most regional climate models (RCMs) simulate links between the circulation indices and precipitation over most of the Mediterranean area reasonably well, especially for theMO andWeMO indices. The RCM with the largest deficiencies in reproducing the links is HadRM for all indices. The spatial patterns of differences in daily precipitation under positive and negative phases of the circulation indices for the future scenario (2070–2099) are similar to those for the control climate for all indices. This suggests that NAO, MO and WeMO are likely to play similar roles in affecting precipitation in the Mediterranean also in the future. However, increased NAO and decreased WeMO index, projected in most examined RCMs for the late twenty-first century in winter, may affect overall precipitation patterns.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GAP209%2F10%2F2265" target="_blank" >GAP209/10/2265: Reprodukce vztahů mezi atmosférickou cirkulací a rozděleními přízemní teploty vzduchu a srážek v klimatických modelech</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

ISSN

0177-798X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

123

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3-4

Stát vydavatele periodika

AT - Rakouská republika

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

693-701

Kód UT WoS článku

000368714100020

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84955611060