Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F18%3A00506155" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/18:00506155 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11320/18:10388203 RIV/00216224:14310/18:00107187 RIV/00020699:_____/19:N0000056 RIV/00216224:14310/19:00133984

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/" target="_blank" >https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01540" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01540</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Monthly, seasonal and annual wind-speed series from 119 meteorological stations in the Czech Republic indicate significant decreasing trends in the period 1961-2015. Attribution analysis, applying multiple linear regression, was used to identify wind-speed components related to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and internally induced climate variability. A significant link to wind speeds was detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation index, as well as for the closely-related Central European Zonal index, especially during the winter. An influence from the East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern was found during autumn and winter, especially in the eastern part of the country. Changes in large-scale circulation did not seem to be primarily involved in long-term wind stilling, despite a formal correlation between the stilling and anthropogenic forcing. Distinct geographical variations in the regression-estimated links suggest profound influences from interactions between local features of the measuring sites and large-scale climate-forming factors. In total, 11 Euro-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for projection of annual and seasonal mean daily wind speeds for the Czech Republic for 1951-2100. Despite correction of the model biases for individual RCMs, these simulations largely underestimated the magnitude of declining observational trends in 1981-2010, with only annual, winter and spring values sharing the same trend for both RCPs. Linear trends in wind speeds calculated for 1981-2100 for both RCPs show a significant negative trend in summer, while significant positive trends in winter and spring wind speeds were recorded for RCP8.5.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Monthly, seasonal and annual wind-speed series from 119 meteorological stations in the Czech Republic indicate significant decreasing trends in the period 1961-2015. Attribution analysis, applying multiple linear regression, was used to identify wind-speed components related to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and internally induced climate variability. A significant link to wind speeds was detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation index, as well as for the closely-related Central European Zonal index, especially during the winter. An influence from the East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern was found during autumn and winter, especially in the eastern part of the country. Changes in large-scale circulation did not seem to be primarily involved in long-term wind stilling, despite a formal correlation between the stilling and anthropogenic forcing. Distinct geographical variations in the regression-estimated links suggest profound influences from interactions between local features of the measuring sites and large-scale climate-forming factors. In total, 11 Euro-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for projection of annual and seasonal mean daily wind speeds for the Czech Republic for 1951-2100. Despite correction of the model biases for individual RCMs, these simulations largely underestimated the magnitude of declining observational trends in 1981-2010, with only annual, winter and spring values sharing the same trend for both RCPs. Linear trends in wind speeds calculated for 1981-2100 for both RCPs show a significant negative trend in summer, while significant positive trends in winter and spring wind speeds were recorded for RCP8.5.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Research

ISSN

0936-577X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

77

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

1-21

Kód UT WoS článku

000456195100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85060850326