Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F19%3A00499866" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/19:00499866 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/67985807:_____/19:00499866 RIV/00216224:14310/19:00109520 RIV/61989592:15310/19:73596809

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LO1415" target="_blank" >LO1415: CzechGlobe 2020 - Rozvoj Centra pro studium dopadů globální změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

152

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3-4

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

487-502

Kód UT WoS článku

000462907000011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85059623227