Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F19%3A00504427" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/19:00504427 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0048969718351520?token=1F2A1F694E5A844F37077A984E0820CC0748F532D2A827DE19DD9F46894A02A86C8B341E733947DE74053E5C899967A6" target="_blank" >https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0048969718351520?token=1F2A1F694E5A844F37077A984E0820CC0748F532D2A827DE19DD9F46894A02A86C8B341E733947DE74053E5C899967A6</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%, Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend, and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models

Popis výsledku anglicky

The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%, Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend, and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

658

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

march

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

1186-1208

Kód UT WoS článku

000456175700113

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85058778634