Multi-model evaluation of phenology prediction for wheat in Australia

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F21%3A00541707" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/21:00541707 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0168192320303919?token=71563322B19C1CFB4EC4F394E2F7AB03E1BF746E549DDA6CD4E51A684745D03615E9086C157DE496A4FA45C934C8453C&originRegion=eu-west-1&originCreation=20210414103656" target="_blank" >https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0168192320303919?token=71563322B19C1CFB4EC4F394E2F7AB03E1BF746E549DDA6CD4E51A684745D03615E9086C157DE496A4FA45C934C8453C&originRegion=eu-west-1&originCreation=20210414103656</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108289" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108289</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Multi-model evaluation of phenology prediction for wheat in Australia

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Predicting wheat phenology is important for cultivar selection, for effective crop management and provides a baseline for evaluating the effects of global change. Evaluating how well crop phenology can be predicted is therefore of major interest. Twenty-eight wheat modeling groups participated in this evaluation. Our target population was wheat fields in the major wheat growing regions of Australia under current climatic conditions and with current local management practices. The environments used for calibration and for evaluation were both sampled from this same target population. The calibration and evaluation environments had neither sites nor years in common, so this is a rigorous evaluation of the ability of modeling groups to predict phenology for new sites and weather conditions. Mean absolute error (MAE) for the evaluation environments, averaged over predictions of three phenological stages and over modeling groups, was 9 days, with a range from 6 to 20 days. Predictions using the multi-modeling group mean and median had prediction errors nearly as small as the best modeling group. About two thirds of the modeling groups performed better than a simple but relevant benchmark, which predicts phenology by assuming a constant temperature sum for each development stage. The added complexity of crop models beyond just the effect of temperature was thus justified in most cases. There was substantial variability between modeling groups using the same model structure, which implies that model improvement could be achieved not only by improving model structure, but also by improving parameter values, and in particular by improving calibration techniques.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Multi-model evaluation of phenology prediction for wheat in Australia

Popis výsledku anglicky

Predicting wheat phenology is important for cultivar selection, for effective crop management and provides a baseline for evaluating the effects of global change. Evaluating how well crop phenology can be predicted is therefore of major interest. Twenty-eight wheat modeling groups participated in this evaluation. Our target population was wheat fields in the major wheat growing regions of Australia under current climatic conditions and with current local management practices. The environments used for calibration and for evaluation were both sampled from this same target population. The calibration and evaluation environments had neither sites nor years in common, so this is a rigorous evaluation of the ability of modeling groups to predict phenology for new sites and weather conditions. Mean absolute error (MAE) for the evaluation environments, averaged over predictions of three phenological stages and over modeling groups, was 9 days, with a range from 6 to 20 days. Predictions using the multi-modeling group mean and median had prediction errors nearly as small as the best modeling group. About two thirds of the modeling groups performed better than a simple but relevant benchmark, which predicts phenology by assuming a constant temperature sum for each development stage. The added complexity of crop models beyond just the effect of temperature was thus justified in most cases. There was substantial variability between modeling groups using the same model structure, which implies that model improvement could be achieved not only by improving model structure, but also by improving parameter values, and in particular by improving calibration techniques.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40101 - Agriculture

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

ISSN

0168-1923

e-ISSN

1873-2240

Svazek periodika

298

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

MAR 15

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

108289

Kód UT WoS článku

000610797100011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85098953804