Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00570968" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00570968 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16562" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16562</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16562" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.16562</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its protein demands. Individual Member States have been quick to declare self-sufficiency targets for plant-based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean production in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its protein demands. Individual Member States have been quick to declare self-sufficiency targets for plant-based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean production in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Global Change Biology

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

1365-2486

Svazek periodika

29

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

19

Strana od-do

1340-1358

Kód UT WoS článku

000906510200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85145454544