Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00602201" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00602201 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/24:10488356

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76524-5" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-76524-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Popis výsledku anglicky

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

2045-2322

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

25778

Kód UT WoS článku

001345716800130

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85208082449