FOOD AVAILABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONSUMER PRICES OF MEAT

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F18%3AN0000007" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/18:N0000007 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61384399:31140/18:00052959

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://ap.pef.czu.cz/en/r-12193-conference-proceedings" target="_blank" >https://ap.pef.czu.cz/en/r-12193-conference-proceedings</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

FOOD AVAILABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONSUMER PRICES OF MEAT

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The share of households’ expenditures on food and beverages in the Czech Republic is on acceptable level, but it is still important to observe consumer prices, because this share depends also on the type of the household (especially unemployed and retired people can experience some constrains). The structure of the consumption has not changed much, but beef meat (BM) consumption decreased. Consumers started to prefer poultry meat (DM) due to health reasons and high increase of BM price. Knowledge about future consumer’ prices is desirable to ensure that meat is available also to low-income households. The aim of the paper is to model consumer prices of BM, PM and DM and predict them from 03/2018 to 02/2019. Methodological objective is to find suitable method for modelling of consumers price of meat: Box-Jenkins methodology (ARIMA) or VAR model. Monthly data were taken from Czech Statistical Office for 01/2006–02/2018. First, the time series were explored in terms of their stationarity and seasonality. Time series were non-stationary and only PM price was seasonal, but insignificantly. The consumer prices depended mainly only on the lag of price one month ago: BM – ARIMA(1,1,0)c, PM – ARIMA(1,1,0) with unit impulse in 06/2008, DM – ARIMA(1,1,0) with unit impulse in 07/2008. However, the projections of price were unsatisfying. VAR(2) model showed weak relations between consumers’ prices. Only BM statistically significantly depends on PM two months ago, PM on its second lag and DM on its first and second lag. According to the projections, the prices might increase next year. This may cause certain problem to low-income households that might not be able to afford enough meat for balanced nutrition. However, our projection has limitation as the final prices are influenced also by the politics of the retail and it is difficult to construct regression model with more explanatory variables.

Název v anglickém jazyce

FOOD AVAILABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONSUMER PRICES OF MEAT

Popis výsledku anglicky

The share of households’ expenditures on food and beverages in the Czech Republic is on acceptable level, but it is still important to observe consumer prices, because this share depends also on the type of the household (especially unemployed and retired people can experience some constrains). The structure of the consumption has not changed much, but beef meat (BM) consumption decreased. Consumers started to prefer poultry meat (DM) due to health reasons and high increase of BM price. Knowledge about future consumer’ prices is desirable to ensure that meat is available also to low-income households. The aim of the paper is to model consumer prices of BM, PM and DM and predict them from 03/2018 to 02/2019. Methodological objective is to find suitable method for modelling of consumers price of meat: Box-Jenkins methodology (ARIMA) or VAR model. Monthly data were taken from Czech Statistical Office for 01/2006–02/2018. First, the time series were explored in terms of their stationarity and seasonality. Time series were non-stationary and only PM price was seasonal, but insignificantly. The consumer prices depended mainly only on the lag of price one month ago: BM – ARIMA(1,1,0)c, PM – ARIMA(1,1,0) with unit impulse in 06/2008, DM – ARIMA(1,1,0) with unit impulse in 07/2008. However, the projections of price were unsatisfying. VAR(2) model showed weak relations between consumers’ prices. Only BM statistically significantly depends on PM two months ago, PM on its second lag and DM on its first and second lag. According to the projections, the prices might increase next year. This may cause certain problem to low-income households that might not be able to afford enough meat for balanced nutrition. However, our projection has limitation as the final prices are influenced also by the politics of the retail and it is difficult to construct regression model with more explanatory variables.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GBP402%2F12%2FG097" target="_blank" >GBP402/12/G097: DYME-Dynamické modely v ekonomii</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

27th International Scientific Conference Agrarian Perspectives XXVII. Food Safety – Food Security

ISBN

978-80-213-2890-7

ISSN

2464-4781

e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

401-407

Název nakladatele

Česká zemědělská univerzita, Provozně-ekonomická fakulta

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

19. 9. 2018

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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