Development of Milk Prices in the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F18%3AN0000027" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/18:N0000027 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61384399:31140/18:00051680

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://uni.uhk.cz/hed/site/assets/files/1072/proceedings_2018_2.pdf" target="_blank" >https://uni.uhk.cz/hed/site/assets/files/1072/proceedings_2018_2.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Development of Milk Prices in the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The sector of milk production underwent through the crisis. Knowing the future price can help the management of the farm to minimize the risks related to the decision-making in production. Hence, the aim of the paper is to find optimal model for modelling of monthly prices of milk from 01/1998 to 06/2016 and predict them for 07/2016-06/2017. First, the development of milk producers' prices is modelled by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages models. Consequently, the relations with monthly prices of maize (02/2006-06/2016) were examined using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. ARIMA model suggests prices of milk in the interval from 5.97 CZIC/I to 7.06 CZK/I that is more realistic prediction than in case of VAR model that predicts lower prices (5.86-6.38 CZK/I). There might be missing some important variables in VAR model of prices of milk that can improve the prediction capability. Therefore, the challenge for future research is to improve the models further using regression analysis with relevant determinants.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Development of Milk Prices in the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

The sector of milk production underwent through the crisis. Knowing the future price can help the management of the farm to minimize the risks related to the decision-making in production. Hence, the aim of the paper is to find optimal model for modelling of monthly prices of milk from 01/1998 to 06/2016 and predict them for 07/2016-06/2017. First, the development of milk producers' prices is modelled by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages models. Consequently, the relations with monthly prices of maize (02/2006-06/2016) were examined using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. ARIMA model suggests prices of milk in the interval from 5.97 CZIC/I to 7.06 CZK/I that is more realistic prediction than in case of VAR model that predicts lower prices (5.86-6.38 CZK/I). There might be missing some important variables in VAR model of prices of milk that can improve the prediction capability. Therefore, the challenge for future research is to improve the models further using regression analysis with relevant determinants.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GBP402%2F12%2FG097" target="_blank" >GBP402/12/G097: DYME-Dynamické modely v ekonomii</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

16th International Scientific Konference on Hradec Economic Days

ISBN

978-80-7435-701-5

ISSN

2464-6059

e-ISSN

2464-6067

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

378-388

Název nakladatele

Univerzita Hradec Králové

Místo vydání

Hradec Králové

Místo konání akce

Hradec Králové

Datum konání akce

30. 1. 2018

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000449443600037