Modelling of slaughter pigs’ prices in the Czech Republic using stochastic models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F18%3AN0000014" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/18:N0000014 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61384399:31140/18:00052414

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://mme2018.fm.vse.cz/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MME2018-Electronic_proceedings.pdf" target="_blank" >https://mme2018.fm.vse.cz/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/MME2018-Electronic_proceedings.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Modelling of slaughter pigs’ prices in the Czech Republic using stochastic models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Despite that the economic situation in pig meat sector improved in years 2015 and 2016, second half of 2017 was worse again due to decrease of slaughter pig price that tends to be highly volatile. Knowing the future price of slaughter pigs can minimize the risks related to the decision-making at pig farms. Hence, the aim of the paper is to find optimal model that can be used for modelling and predicting of monthly prices of slaughter pigs. Data from 01/1998 to 06/2016 are used to predict slaughter pig price for period 07/2016–06/2017. Two types of stochastic models are used. First, the development of slaughter pig meat producers’ prices is modelled by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (SARIMA) model. Consequently, the relations with monthly prices of fodder plants (available only for period 02/2006–06/2016) are searched using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Modelling of slaughter pigs’ prices in the Czech Republic using stochastic models

Popis výsledku anglicky

Despite that the economic situation in pig meat sector improved in years 2015 and 2016, second half of 2017 was worse again due to decrease of slaughter pig price that tends to be highly volatile. Knowing the future price of slaughter pigs can minimize the risks related to the decision-making at pig farms. Hence, the aim of the paper is to find optimal model that can be used for modelling and predicting of monthly prices of slaughter pigs. Data from 01/1998 to 06/2016 are used to predict slaughter pig price for period 07/2016–06/2017. Two types of stochastic models are used. First, the development of slaughter pig meat producers’ prices is modelled by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (SARIMA) model. Consequently, the relations with monthly prices of fodder plants (available only for period 02/2006–06/2016) are searched using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GBP402%2F12%2FG097" target="_blank" >GBP402/12/G097: DYME-Dynamické modely v ekonomii</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

36th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics

ISBN

978-80-7378-371-6

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

539-544

Název nakladatele

Faculty of Management, University of Economics, Prague

Místo vydání

Jindřichův Hradec

Místo konání akce

Jindřichův Hradec

Datum konání akce

12. 9. 2018

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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