Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz's 05 Chaotic Model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F15%3A10321343" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/15:10321343 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://www.hindawi.com/journals/tswj/2015/729080/" target="_blank" >http://www.hindawi.com/journals/tswj/2015/729080/</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/729080" target="_blank" >10.1155/2015/729080</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz's 05 Chaotic Model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Initial errors inweather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value. Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability. This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheric model for five initial errors, using ensemble prediction method (model's data) as well as error approximation by quadratic and logarithmic hypothesis and their modifications.We show that modified hypothesesapproximate the model's time limits better, but not without serious disadvantages.We demonstrate how hypotheses can be further improved to achieve better match of time limits with the model. We also show that quadratic hypothesis approximates the model'sasymptotic value best and that, after improvement, it also approximates the model's time limits better for almost all initial errors and time lengths.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz's 05 Chaotic Model

Popis výsledku anglicky

Initial errors inweather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value. Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability. This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheric model for five initial errors, using ensemble prediction method (model's data) as well as error approximation by quadratic and logarithmic hypothesis and their modifications.We show that modified hypothesesapproximate the model's time limits better, but not without serious disadvantages.We demonstrate how hypotheses can be further improved to achieve better match of time limits with the model. We also show that quadratic hypothesis approximates the model'sasymptotic value best and that, after improvement, it also approximates the model's time limits better for almost all initial errors and time lengths.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

The Scientific World Journal

ISSN

1537-744X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

2015

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2015

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

729080-729089

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84939824958