Late stages of initial errors growth in weather prediction with use of low-dimensional atmospheric model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F12%3A10132629" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/12:10132629 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://www.mff.cuni.cz/veda/konference/wds/proc/proc-contents.php?year=2012" target="_blank" >http://www.mff.cuni.cz/veda/konference/wds/proc/proc-contents.php?year=2012</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Late stages of initial errors growth in weather prediction with use of low-dimensional atmospheric model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential. As an error becomes larger, the growth rate should diminish. Finally, all systematic growth should stop, and the magnitude of the error should oscillate about a value equal to the magnitudeof the distance between two states chosen randomly. The aim of this paper is study of error growth in low-dimensional atmospheric model after the initial exponential divergence died away. For this purpose we test several hypotheses (cubic, quartic, logarithmic) by ensemble prediction method. Also quadratic hypothesis that was introduced by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by quadratic hypothesis. After the initialerror exceed a half of average value of variables than logarithmic approximation is better.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Late stages of initial errors growth in weather prediction with use of low-dimensional atmospheric model

Popis výsledku anglicky

The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential. As an error becomes larger, the growth rate should diminish. Finally, all systematic growth should stop, and the magnitude of the error should oscillate about a value equal to the magnitudeof the distance between two states chosen randomly. The aim of this paper is study of error growth in low-dimensional atmospheric model after the initial exponential divergence died away. For this purpose we test several hypotheses (cubic, quartic, logarithmic) by ensemble prediction method. Also quadratic hypothesis that was introduced by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by quadratic hypothesis. After the initialerror exceed a half of average value of variables than logarithmic approximation is better.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2012

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

WDS'12 Proceedings of Contributed Papers, Part III

ISBN

978-80-7378-226-9

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

82-87

Název nakladatele

Matfyzpress

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

29. 5. 2012

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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