COVID-19 in North Africa: Comparative analysis by macroscopic growth laws

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439928" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439928 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=9Q3R2sE4kP" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=9Q3R2sE4kP</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0129183121500637" target="_blank" >10.1142/S0129183121500637</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

COVID-19 in North Africa: Comparative analysis by macroscopic growth laws

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

A comparative analysis of the COVID-19 diffusion in North African countries, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has been carried out with the aim to study the effects of the containment efforts in different nations and the reliability of the predictions based on the data fits by macroscopic growth laws with a small number of free parameters. The comparison with data shows that the Coronavirus spreading has often different phases: an initial exponential behavior, followed by a Gompertz one and/or by a logistic phase, due to containment effort. The study of the growth phases permits to verify the restarting of the disease spreading after a stationarity period due to new outbreaks or to the weakness of the social control measures. The response of the National Health Systems to the emergency is discussed and some short-term predictions on the cumulative number of confirmed infected, on the hospitalizations and on the total number of deaths is done. The possible correlation with immigration in other Mediterranean Countries has been analyzed. Stable (or unstable) condition of the spreading can quickly change due to a stronger or weaker application of the lockdown measures and short-term predictions turn out to be reliable.

Název v anglickém jazyce

COVID-19 in North Africa: Comparative analysis by macroscopic growth laws

Popis výsledku anglicky

A comparative analysis of the COVID-19 diffusion in North African countries, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has been carried out with the aim to study the effects of the containment efforts in different nations and the reliability of the predictions based on the data fits by macroscopic growth laws with a small number of free parameters. The comparison with data shows that the Coronavirus spreading has often different phases: an initial exponential behavior, followed by a Gompertz one and/or by a logistic phase, due to containment effort. The study of the growth phases permits to verify the restarting of the disease spreading after a stationarity period due to new outbreaks or to the weakness of the social control measures. The response of the National Health Systems to the emergency is discussed and some short-term predictions on the cumulative number of confirmed infected, on the hospitalizations and on the total number of deaths is done. The possible correlation with immigration in other Mediterranean Countries has been analyzed. Stable (or unstable) condition of the spreading can quickly change due to a stronger or weaker application of the lockdown measures and short-term predictions turn out to be reliable.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10300 - Physical sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Modern Physics C

ISSN

0129-1831

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

32

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

05

Stát vydavatele periodika

SG - Singapurská republika

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

2150063

Kód UT WoS článku

000646958300009

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85100549795