Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F20%3A10421810" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/20:10421810 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=byR-FPqEz0" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=byR-FPqEz0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S012918312050103X" target="_blank" >10.1142/S012918312050103X</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law, and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits, to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis, it appears that the spreading reached saturation in China, due to the strong containment policy of the national government. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws

Popis výsledku anglicky

To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law, and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits, to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis, it appears that the spreading reached saturation in China, due to the strong containment policy of the national government. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10300 - Physical sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Modern Physics C

ISSN

0129-1831

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

31

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

7

Stát vydavatele periodika

SG - Singapurská republika

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

2050103

Kód UT WoS článku

000557738400014

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85086908570