Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439439" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439439 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=FHR2s8jcQ4" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=FHR2s8jcQ4</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and, moreover, possible mutations of the virus give rise to a large specific growth rate of the infected people. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the regrowth pattern is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of France, Italy and United Kingdom are analyzed. (C) 2021 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading

Popis výsledku anglicky

In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and, moreover, possible mutations of the virus give rise to a large specific growth rate of the infected people. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the regrowth pattern is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of France, Italy and United Kingdom are analyzed. (C) 2021 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10300 - Physical sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Infectious Disease Modelling [online]

ISSN

2468-0427

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

6

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

CN - Čínská lidová republika

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

632-642

Kód UT WoS článku

000642411100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85104071806