Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14110%2F24%3A00138892" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14110/24:00138892 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/47813059:19610/24:A0000156

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

Popis výsledku anglicky

We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

30230 - Other clinical medicine subjects

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of dynamics and differential equations.

ISSN

1040-7294

e-ISSN

1572-9222

Svazek periodika

36

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

SUPPL 1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

24

Strana od-do

199-222

Kód UT WoS článku

001174946100011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85113368513