Does the yield curve predict the future economic activity? The case of EU-25

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F13%3A00070600" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/13:00070600 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Does the yield curve predict the future economic activity? The case of EU-25

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyse the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity in EU-25 between the years 2000 and 2013. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly. The results can be beneficial for investors as a possible indicator of future economic activity.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Does the yield curve predict the future economic activity? The case of EU-25

Popis výsledku anglicky

The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyse the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity in EU-25 between the years 2000 and 2013. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly. The results can be beneficial for investors as a possible indicator of future economic activity.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2013

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Conference Proceedings: 4th International Masaryk Conference for Ph.D. Students and Young Researchers 2013.

ISBN

9788087952009

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

1635-1644

Název nakladatele

MAGNANIMITAS

Místo vydání

Hradec Králové

Místo konání akce

Hradec Králové

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2013

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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