Sovereign Bond Spreads as a Predictors of Gross Domestic Product Growth in North America

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F15%3A00084191" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/15:00084191 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

—

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Sovereign Bond Spreads as a Predictors of Gross Domestic Product Growth in North America

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of countries of North America (Canada, Mexico, the United States of America) between the years 2000 and 2014. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread betweensovereign 10-year bonds and sovereign 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Sovereign Bond Spreads as a Predictors of Gross Domestic Product Growth in North America

Popis výsledku anglicky

The yield curve ? specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow real growth the near term. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of countries of North America (Canada, Mexico, the United States of America) between the years 2000 and 2014. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread betweensovereign 10-year bonds and sovereign 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AE - Řízení, správa a administrativa

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

European Financial Systems 2015. Proceedings of the 12th International Scientific Conference

ISBN

9788021079625

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

—

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

218-223

Název nakladatele

Masarykova univerzita

Místo vydání

Brno

Místo konání akce

Brno

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2015

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000370679200030