Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: Suggestions for Further Research

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F16%3A00090796" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/16:00090796 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://is.muni.cz/do/econ/sborniky/2016/EFS2016-Proceedings_final_September_12_final_web.pdf" target="_blank" >http://is.muni.cz/do/econ/sborniky/2016/EFS2016-Proceedings_final_September_12_final_web.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: Suggestions for Further Research

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The market volatility plays an important role in the world of finance and it is essential part of risk management, asset management and valuation of derivatives. Several models for volatility forecasting exist. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for further research in forecasting exchange rate volatility. The first part describes essential information about market volatility and its importance. Analysis of commonly used methods for volatility forecasting follows along with a comparison of individual econometric models. Empirical literature, which measures predicting abilities of different models on the real data from the foreign exchange market, is also examined. According to our results, one of the best model for forecasting exchange rate volatility is simple GARCH(1,1) model. However, the latest empirical evidence highlights relatively new HAR-RV model which is able to provide even better results.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: Suggestions for Further Research

Popis výsledku anglicky

The market volatility plays an important role in the world of finance and it is essential part of risk management, asset management and valuation of derivatives. Several models for volatility forecasting exist. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for further research in forecasting exchange rate volatility. The first part describes essential information about market volatility and its importance. Analysis of commonly used methods for volatility forecasting follows along with a comparison of individual econometric models. Empirical literature, which measures predicting abilities of different models on the real data from the foreign exchange market, is also examined. According to our results, one of the best model for forecasting exchange rate volatility is simple GARCH(1,1) model. However, the latest empirical evidence highlights relatively new HAR-RV model which is able to provide even better results.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

European Financial Systems 2016

ISBN

9788021083080

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

5

Strana od-do

609-613

Název nakladatele

Masarykova univerzita

Místo vydání

Brno

Místo konání akce

Brno

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000385692200081