The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads and the Development of the Stock Market on GDP Prediction: The Case of Visegrad Group
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F17%3A00098197" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/17:00098197 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
—
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads and the Development of the Stock Market on GDP Prediction: The Case of Visegrad Group
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
The yield curve – specifically the spread between the long term and the short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions one to six quarters ahead. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. For better predictions it is good to use other overtaking indicators of economic activity as the development of the stock market. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between the slope of the yield curve, development of the stock market and an economic activity of selected countries between the years 2000 and 2016. The selected countries are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly. We have found out that the bond spreads and stock market development might be used for predicting of the future economic activity, the best lags of bond spreads are 2, 4 or 5 quarters. These findings might be beneficial for investors and provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity.
Název v anglickém jazyce
The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads and the Development of the Stock Market on GDP Prediction: The Case of Visegrad Group
Popis výsledku anglicky
The yield curve – specifically the spread between the long term and the short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions one to six quarters ahead. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. For better predictions it is good to use other overtaking indicators of economic activity as the development of the stock market. This paper aims to analyze the dependence between the slope of the yield curve, development of the stock market and an economic activity of selected countries between the years 2000 and 2016. The selected countries are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly. We have found out that the bond spreads and stock market development might be used for predicting of the future economic activity, the best lags of bond spreads are 2, 4 or 5 quarters. These findings might be beneficial for investors and provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity.
Klasifikace
Druh
D - Stať ve sborníku
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
50600 - Political science
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2017
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název statě ve sborníku
European Financial Systems 2017. Proceedings of the 14th International Scientific Conference
ISBN
9788021086098
ISSN
—
e-ISSN
—
Počet stran výsledku
7
Strana od-do
274-280
Název nakladatele
Masaryk University
Místo vydání
Brno
Místo konání akce
Brno
Datum konání akce
1. 1. 2017
Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti
EUR - Evropská akce
Kód UT WoS článku
000418110700034