Predicting risk in energy markets: Low-frequency data still matter
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F21%3A00119318" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/21:00119318 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920315567#" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920315567#</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116146" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116146</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Predicting risk in energy markets: Low-frequency data still matter
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Are high-frequency data always needed to generate precise forecasts of risk measures in energy markets? This study attempts to shed light on this question. We study whether energy market participants can rely on low-frequency volatility estimators when interested in two market risks: volatility and expected shortfall. Using ten years of data on four of the world’s most liquid energy futures contracts – the crude oil benchmarks West Texas Intermediate and Brent, as well as natural gas and heating oil futures – we provide conclusive evidence that while realized volatility models lead to much more accurate forecasts in the short term, medium- and longer-term forecasts based on daily ranges are comparable and, in some cases, even more accurate than their high-frequency counterparts that are computationally more intensive and that require costly data. Next, we present an application to predict extreme price declines - expected shortfall - with low-frequency volatility estimates. For that purpose, we propose a novel complete subset quantile regression model to predict multiple-day-ahead expected shortfall . Our back-testing results show that the new model leads to well-specified price decline forecasts, particularly when used with low-frequency volatility estimates. These results show that depending on the forecast horizon and purpose, low-frequency, publicly available, free of cost and easy to process volatility estimators still matter.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Predicting risk in energy markets: Low-frequency data still matter
Popis výsledku anglicky
Are high-frequency data always needed to generate precise forecasts of risk measures in energy markets? This study attempts to shed light on this question. We study whether energy market participants can rely on low-frequency volatility estimators when interested in two market risks: volatility and expected shortfall. Using ten years of data on four of the world’s most liquid energy futures contracts – the crude oil benchmarks West Texas Intermediate and Brent, as well as natural gas and heating oil futures – we provide conclusive evidence that while realized volatility models lead to much more accurate forecasts in the short term, medium- and longer-term forecasts based on daily ranges are comparable and, in some cases, even more accurate than their high-frequency counterparts that are computationally more intensive and that require costly data. Next, we present an application to predict extreme price declines - expected shortfall - with low-frequency volatility estimates. For that purpose, we propose a novel complete subset quantile regression model to predict multiple-day-ahead expected shortfall . Our back-testing results show that the new model leads to well-specified price decline forecasts, particularly when used with low-frequency volatility estimates. These results show that depending on the forecast horizon and purpose, low-frequency, publicly available, free of cost and easy to process volatility estimators still matter.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
50206 - Finance
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
<a href="/cs/project/GA18-05829S" target="_blank" >GA18-05829S: Predikce volatility na rozvijících se finančních trzích</a><br>
Návaznosti
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2021
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Applied Energy
ISSN
0306-2619
e-ISSN
1872-9118
Svazek periodika
282
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
Part A
Stát vydavatele periodika
NL - Nizozemsko
Počet stran výsledku
17
Strana od-do
1-17
Kód UT WoS článku
000599659800003
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85096475837