New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F21%3A00122730" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/21:00122730 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EVPYRMJCC4RGTA5QJSGC/full?target=10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084" target="_blank" >https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EVPYRMJCC4RGTA5QJSGC/full?target=10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084" target="_blank" >10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In developed economies, macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and price indices tend to predict new credit expansion. We explore whether business and consumer surveys complement traditional macroeconomic variables in predicting new household and corporate loans in the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Using monthly data for Slovakia, starting in 2009 and ending in 2019, we use Bayesian model averaging to examine 102 potential credit drivers. Our results show that, with the exception of interest rates and unemployment, traditional macroeconomic variables do not seem to drive credit market development. Instead, survey-based perceptions, calendar effects and policy uncertainty show relevant predictive power.

Název v anglickém jazyce

New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy

Popis výsledku anglicky

In developed economies, macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and price indices tend to predict new credit expansion. We explore whether business and consumer surveys complement traditional macroeconomic variables in predicting new household and corporate loans in the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Using monthly data for Slovakia, starting in 2009 and ending in 2019, we use Bayesian model averaging to examine 102 potential credit drivers. Our results show that, with the exception of interest rates and unemployment, traditional macroeconomic variables do not seem to drive credit market development. Instead, survey-based perceptions, calendar effects and policy uncertainty show relevant predictive power.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Eastern European Economics

ISSN

0012-8775

e-ISSN

1557-9298

Svazek periodika

60

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

34

Strana od-do

79-112

Kód UT WoS článku

000710375500001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85118168181