Possibilities and Limitations of Quantitative Methods in Short-Term Demand Forecasting in a Manufacturing Company

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25310%2F15%3A39900261" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25310/15:39900261 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

—

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Possibilities and Limitations of Quantitative Methods in Short-Term Demand Forecasting in a Manufacturing Company

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Demand forecasting plays an irreplaceable role in management of logistics processes in manufacturing companies, where the accuracy of arising forecasts has a direct impact on the effectiveness of these processes. When forecasting the demand, it is possible to choose from a wide range of forecasting methods. Quantitative methods based on the analysis of sales time series have been most widely used in practice thanks to the facts that they do not place high demands on time and finances, they are not very laborious, and that they are highly objective compared to qualitative forecasting methods. The possibilities of application of quantitative methods were the subject matter of the research performed in the company PK Ham, s.r.o., doing business on the Czech market in the area of production and distribution of meat and smoked meat products. The needed structure of forecasts was identified on the basis of in-depth interviews conducted with the company employees. Furthermore, the research team analysed the sales time series in all the company products in 2011-2014 and analysed the accuracy of eight forecasting methods on three sales aggregation levels. On the basis of the outcomes of partial analyses, the paper discusses the application possibilities and limitations of selected quantitative methods in short-term demand forecasting in the monitored company.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Possibilities and Limitations of Quantitative Methods in Short-Term Demand Forecasting in a Manufacturing Company

Popis výsledku anglicky

Demand forecasting plays an irreplaceable role in management of logistics processes in manufacturing companies, where the accuracy of arising forecasts has a direct impact on the effectiveness of these processes. When forecasting the demand, it is possible to choose from a wide range of forecasting methods. Quantitative methods based on the analysis of sales time series have been most widely used in practice thanks to the facts that they do not place high demands on time and finances, they are not very laborious, and that they are highly objective compared to qualitative forecasting methods. The possibilities of application of quantitative methods were the subject matter of the research performed in the company PK Ham, s.r.o., doing business on the Czech market in the area of production and distribution of meat and smoked meat products. The needed structure of forecasts was identified on the basis of in-depth interviews conducted with the company employees. Furthermore, the research team analysed the sales time series in all the company products in 2011-2014 and analysed the accuracy of eight forecasting methods on three sales aggregation levels. On the basis of the outcomes of partial analyses, the paper discusses the application possibilities and limitations of selected quantitative methods in short-term demand forecasting in the monitored company.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

CLC 2015: Carpathian Logistics Congress: Congress Proceedings

ISBN

978-80-87294-64-2

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

—

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

432-437

Název nakladatele

TANGER, spol. s r.o.

Místo vydání

Ostrava

Místo konání akce

Jeseník

Datum konání akce

4. 11. 2015

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000387950100066