Principal Component Analysis for Evaluation of Wind Ramp Event Probability

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25530%2F15%3A39899009" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25530/15:39899009 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989100:27240/14:86096796

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/EPEC.2014.50" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/EPEC.2014.50</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/EPEC.2014.50" target="_blank" >10.1109/EPEC.2014.50</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Principal Component Analysis for Evaluation of Wind Ramp Event Probability

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

During last few decades wind energy has become one of the fastest growing renewable sources. Recent research interest in wind power forecasting community is focused on wind ramps, sudden changes in wind power output. Conventional ramp prediction methods derive future ramp estimates from power forecast series. We suggest to analyze real wind power series or other weather parameters searching for specific patterns and dependencies signalizing forthcoming wind ramp event. In this paper, principal component analysis of wind speed time series is presented. Analyzed power production and wind speed data were collected from August 2011 to July 2012 on sample wind farm located close to Let bridge, AB Canada. Sensitivity of analysis is defined by length of selected time frame. Frequency tables for first three principal components are used to evaluate conditional probability of forthcoming wind ramp event. Advantage of proposed methodology compared to conventional methods is that numerical weather prediction (NWP) model producing wind forecasts is not required.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Principal Component Analysis for Evaluation of Wind Ramp Event Probability

Popis výsledku anglicky

During last few decades wind energy has become one of the fastest growing renewable sources. Recent research interest in wind power forecasting community is focused on wind ramps, sudden changes in wind power output. Conventional ramp prediction methods derive future ramp estimates from power forecast series. We suggest to analyze real wind power series or other weather parameters searching for specific patterns and dependencies signalizing forthcoming wind ramp event. In this paper, principal component analysis of wind speed time series is presented. Analyzed power production and wind speed data were collected from August 2011 to July 2012 on sample wind farm located close to Let bridge, AB Canada. Sensitivity of analysis is defined by length of selected time frame. Frequency tables for first three principal components are used to evaluate conditional probability of forthcoming wind ramp event. Advantage of proposed methodology compared to conventional methods is that numerical weather prediction (NWP) model producing wind forecasts is not required.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

JE - Nejaderná energetika, spotřeba a užití energie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EE2.3.30.0058" target="_blank" >EE2.3.30.0058: Rozvoj kvalitních vědeckovýzkumných týmů na Univerzitě Pardubice</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings - 2014 Electrical Power and Energy Conference, EPEC 2014

ISBN

978-1-4799-6038-5

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

—

Počet stran výsledku

5

Strana od-do

208-212

Název nakladatele

IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)

Místo vydání

New York

Místo konání akce

Calgary

Datum konání akce

12. 11. 2014

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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