Heuristic methodology for forecasting of quantities in waste management

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F17%3APU124850" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/17:PU124850 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185" target="_blank" >10.13164/mendel.2017.1.185</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Heuristic methodology for forecasting of quantities in waste management

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The forecast of waste production and disposal is an important requirement for a future waste management planning. The problem is very often a short time series of the database. This paper suggests an approach to forecast the production of multiple waste types in micro-regions taking into account this challenge by combining many techniques. The heuristic methodology consisting of few steps is formulated. First, the input data are transformed and the methods from cluster analysis are repetitively applied. The second step is about a determination of quality for trend functions based on historical data. In the last step is performed the testing. The different type of representatives from cluster analysis is used to calculate indices of determination which are compared. This procedure is repeated until the criteria hit. The proposed approach reduced the computational time and managed to aggregate micro-regions with a similar trend. The forecast should have contributions in terms of building new facilities or adaptations to the existing ones, where it is necessary to estimate the production of waste for several years in advance. The article includes a case study of production forecast for several waste types in territorial units of the Czech Republic. The forecast is based on data in years 2009--2014 and following year 2015 was used to assess the quality of the final models. In the future, the database will expand and thus it will be possible to make more precise estimates and to develop statistical methods to measure this prognostic tool.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Heuristic methodology for forecasting of quantities in waste management

Popis výsledku anglicky

The forecast of waste production and disposal is an important requirement for a future waste management planning. The problem is very often a short time series of the database. This paper suggests an approach to forecast the production of multiple waste types in micro-regions taking into account this challenge by combining many techniques. The heuristic methodology consisting of few steps is formulated. First, the input data are transformed and the methods from cluster analysis are repetitively applied. The second step is about a determination of quality for trend functions based on historical data. In the last step is performed the testing. The different type of representatives from cluster analysis is used to calculate indices of determination which are compared. This procedure is repeated until the criteria hit. The proposed approach reduced the computational time and managed to aggregate micro-regions with a similar trend. The forecast should have contributions in terms of building new facilities or adaptations to the existing ones, where it is necessary to estimate the production of waste for several years in advance. The article includes a case study of production forecast for several waste types in territorial units of the Czech Republic. The forecast is based on data in years 2009--2014 and following year 2015 was used to assess the quality of the final models. In the future, the database will expand and thus it will be possible to make more precise estimates and to develop statistical methods to measure this prognostic tool.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF15_003%2F0000456" target="_blank" >EF15_003/0000456: Laboratoř integrace procesů pro trvalou udržitelnost</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Mendel Journal series

ISSN

1803-3814

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

2017

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

185-192

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85042253341