Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F26%3A0198157" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/26:0198157 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141183

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-01467-4" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-01467-4</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

20

Strana od-do

1-20

Kód UT WoS článku

001489971100014

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105005438793