Water distribution system reliability assessment based on nonparametric approach

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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RIV/60162694:G43__/19:00537289

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Water distribution system reliability assessment based on nonparametric approach

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

A water distribution system is a key part of the critical infrastructure. Its elements are monitored to obtain the information about the condition of the system. However, recorded data sets do not usually contain the information on every single event and there is no detailed information regarding the data structure. More often, the data are aggregated, usually in a monthly manner. Details in the data concerning failure dates, the length of down time, etc. would significantly help to make more sophisticated assessment. Having relatively poor data in hand, we employed nonparametric regression estimators - regressogram and kernel smoothers - to assess a reliability measure: the rate of occurrence of failures. We compared the nonparametric approach with widely used parametric methods, namely with the power law model and the logarithmic linear model. All of the mentioned methods were used for the sake of modeling the rate of occurrence of failures of the water distribution system. Also the usage of the nonparametric estimates was supported by a simulation study focused on the interpolating and extrapolating predictive power of the used models. The outcomes of the study show that for a constant and monotone failure rates the models are comparable, but for the bathtub shaped failure rate the nonparametric model overcomes the parametric ones.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Water distribution system reliability assessment based on nonparametric approach

Popis výsledku anglicky

A water distribution system is a key part of the critical infrastructure. Its elements are monitored to obtain the information about the condition of the system. However, recorded data sets do not usually contain the information on every single event and there is no detailed information regarding the data structure. More often, the data are aggregated, usually in a monthly manner. Details in the data concerning failure dates, the length of down time, etc. would significantly help to make more sophisticated assessment. Having relatively poor data in hand, we employed nonparametric regression estimators - regressogram and kernel smoothers - to assess a reliability measure: the rate of occurrence of failures. We compared the nonparametric approach with widely used parametric methods, namely with the power law model and the logarithmic linear model. All of the mentioned methods were used for the sake of modeling the rate of occurrence of failures of the water distribution system. Also the usage of the nonparametric estimates was supported by a simulation study focused on the interpolating and extrapolating predictive power of the used models. The outcomes of the study show that for a constant and monotone failure rates the models are comparable, but for the bathtub shaped failure rate the nonparametric model overcomes the parametric ones.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference - ESREL 2019

ISBN

978-981-11-2724-3

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

1056-1063

Název nakladatele

Research Publishing Services

Místo vydání

Singapore

Místo konání akce

Hannover, Germany

Datum konání akce

22. 9. 2019

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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