Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F20%3A82128" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/20:82128 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68872-9" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68872-9</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018-2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8,5), we notice a seven fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 (+/-5) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2,6 and RCP 4,5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutiv

Název v anglickém jazyce

Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming

Popis výsledku anglicky

Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018-2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8,5), we notice a seven fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 (+/-5) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2,6 and RCP 4,5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutiv

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GC19-24089J" target="_blank" >GC19-24089J: XEROS: Extrémní evropská sucha - Vícemodelová syntéza minulých, současných a budoucích událostí</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

e-ISSN

2045-2322

Svazek periodika

10

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

12207

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

1-10

Kód UT WoS článku

000573236800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85089145962