Alternative roles of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption: Evidence from European countries

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F16%3A86100067" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/16:86100067 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02" target="_blank" >10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Alternative roles of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption: Evidence from European countries

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The predictive power of consumer sentiment indicator to forecast consumption spending was already accepted, but the theoretical explanation for that is still vague. Moreover, some of the studies showed that after adding other macroeconomic variables in forecasting model, the predictive power of consumer confidence indicator becomes limited. This paper proposes to distinguish between two predictive channels of confidence data for consumption spending. The first, income channel, should represent the ability of confidence data to predict an expected future income of a consumer. The predictive power of confidence through the second channel should serve for the approximation of consumers' intentions to consume. According to this distinction, I propose to use the data from initial survey questions separately rather than one composite consumer confidence indicator. This way, the predictive power of confidence data could be more clarified. I have used the data from the European Commission Consumer Survey and on the sample of 27 countries confirmed that by using separate confidence data rather than composite indicator, a higher predictive power of confidence data could be achieved.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Alternative roles of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption: Evidence from European countries

Popis výsledku anglicky

The predictive power of consumer sentiment indicator to forecast consumption spending was already accepted, but the theoretical explanation for that is still vague. Moreover, some of the studies showed that after adding other macroeconomic variables in forecasting model, the predictive power of consumer confidence indicator becomes limited. This paper proposes to distinguish between two predictive channels of confidence data for consumption spending. The first, income channel, should represent the ability of confidence data to predict an expected future income of a consumer. The predictive power of confidence through the second channel should serve for the approximation of consumers' intentions to consume. According to this distinction, I propose to use the data from initial survey questions separately rather than one composite consumer confidence indicator. This way, the predictive power of confidence data could be more clarified. I have used the data from the European Commission Consumer Survey and on the sample of 27 countries confirmed that by using separate confidence data rather than composite indicator, a higher predictive power of confidence data could be achieved.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EE2.3.20.0296" target="_blank" >EE2.3.20.0296: Výzkumný tým pro modelování ekonomických a finančních procesů na VŠB-TU Ostrava</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ekonomická revue

ISSN

1212-3951

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

19

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

133-142

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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