INDICATORS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF MOVING AVERAGES AS PROGNOSTIC METHODS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F18%3A10241042" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/18:10241042 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07" target="_blank" >10.7441/joc.2018.04.07</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

INDICATORS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF MOVING AVERAGES AS PROGNOSTIC METHODS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Competitiveness is an important factor in a company&apos;s ability to achieve success, and proper forecasting can be a fundamental source of competitive advantage for an enterprise. The aim of this study is to show the possibility of using technical analysis indicators in forecasting prices in the food industry in comparison with classical methods, namely exponential smoothing. In the food industry, competitiveness is also a key element of business. Competitiveness, however, requires not only a thorough historical analysis not only of but also forecasting. Forecasting methods are very complex and are often prevented from wider application to increase competitiveness. The indicators of technical analysis meet the criteria of simplicity and can therefore be a good way to increase competitiveness through proper forecasting. In this manuscript, the use of simple forecasting tools is confirmed for the period of 2009-2018. The analysis was completed using data on the main raw materials of the food industry, namely wheat food, wheat forage, malting barley, milk, apples and potatoes, for which monthly data from January 2009 to February 2018 was collected. The data file has been analyzed and modified, with an analysis of indicators based on rolling averages selected. The indicators were compared using exponential smoothing forecasting. Accuracy RMSE and MAPE criteria were selected. The results show that, while the use of indicators as a default setting is inappropriate in business economics, their accuracy is not as strong as the accuracy provided by exponential smoothing. In the following section, the models were optimized. With these optimized parameters, technical indicators seem to be an appropriate tool.

Název v anglickém jazyce

INDICATORS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF MOVING AVERAGES AS PROGNOSTIC METHODS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Popis výsledku anglicky

Competitiveness is an important factor in a company&apos;s ability to achieve success, and proper forecasting can be a fundamental source of competitive advantage for an enterprise. The aim of this study is to show the possibility of using technical analysis indicators in forecasting prices in the food industry in comparison with classical methods, namely exponential smoothing. In the food industry, competitiveness is also a key element of business. Competitiveness, however, requires not only a thorough historical analysis not only of but also forecasting. Forecasting methods are very complex and are often prevented from wider application to increase competitiveness. The indicators of technical analysis meet the criteria of simplicity and can therefore be a good way to increase competitiveness through proper forecasting. In this manuscript, the use of simple forecasting tools is confirmed for the period of 2009-2018. The analysis was completed using data on the main raw materials of the food industry, namely wheat food, wheat forage, malting barley, milk, apples and potatoes, for which monthly data from January 2009 to February 2018 was collected. The data file has been analyzed and modified, with an analysis of indicators based on rolling averages selected. The indicators were compared using exponential smoothing forecasting. Accuracy RMSE and MAPE criteria were selected. The results show that, while the use of indicators as a default setting is inappropriate in business economics, their accuracy is not as strong as the accuracy provided by exponential smoothing. In the following section, the models were optimized. With these optimized parameters, technical indicators seem to be an appropriate tool.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Competitiveness

ISSN

1804-171X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

10

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

102-119

Kód UT WoS článku

000453444200008

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—