New Economic Era Thinking and Stock Market Bubbles: A Two-Dimensional Piecewise Linear Discontinuous Map Approach

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F25%3A10257830" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/25:10257830 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-82003-8_9" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-82003-8_9</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-82003-8_9" target="_blank" >10.1007/978-3-031-82003-8_9</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

New Economic Era Thinking and Stock Market Bubbles: A Two-Dimensional Piecewise Linear Discontinuous Map Approach

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Based on a simple chartist-fundamentalist model, we demonstrate that new economic era thinking, i.e., temporarily optimistic views about the state of the economy, may lead to the creation of endogenous stock market bubbles. The dynamics of our stock market model are represented by a two-dimensional piecewise linear discontinuous map. The discontinuity set is quite different from those considered in the recent works on similar maps. Here, we show how to analyze also maps with novel constraints, proving that the main result is still multistability in the parameter regions associated with the stable fundamental fixed point, coexisting with several attracting cycles. However, in the parameter space, the bifurcation structure of the existing periodicity regions is new, and highly dependent on the parameter values. We describe the bifurcations related to a particular family of cycles with rotation number 1/n, n &gt;= 3. We also describe in detail several properties of a saddle 2-cycle (which can never be attracting), playing an important role for the dynamics. Before its homoclinic bifurcation, the stable set of the 2-cycle belongs to the boundary of the set, in the phase plane, related to divergent trajectories. Our results evidence the existence of oscillations around the fundamental fixed point for parameter settings in what is usually considered its stability domain, as well as the existence of chaotic attractors when the fundamental fixed point is unstable.

Název v anglickém jazyce

New Economic Era Thinking and Stock Market Bubbles: A Two-Dimensional Piecewise Linear Discontinuous Map Approach

Popis výsledku anglicky

Based on a simple chartist-fundamentalist model, we demonstrate that new economic era thinking, i.e., temporarily optimistic views about the state of the economy, may lead to the creation of endogenous stock market bubbles. The dynamics of our stock market model are represented by a two-dimensional piecewise linear discontinuous map. The discontinuity set is quite different from those considered in the recent works on similar maps. Here, we show how to analyze also maps with novel constraints, proving that the main result is still multistability in the parameter regions associated with the stable fundamental fixed point, coexisting with several attracting cycles. However, in the parameter space, the bifurcation structure of the existing periodicity regions is new, and highly dependent on the parameter values. We describe the bifurcations related to a particular family of cycles with rotation number 1/n, n &gt;= 3. We also describe in detail several properties of a saddle 2-cycle (which can never be attracting), playing an important role for the dynamics. Before its homoclinic bifurcation, the stable set of the 2-cycle belongs to the boundary of the set, in the phase plane, related to divergent trajectories. Our results evidence the existence of oscillations around the fundamental fixed point for parameter settings in what is usually considered its stability domain, as well as the existence of chaotic attractors when the fundamental fixed point is unstable.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics. Volume 485

ISBN

978-3-031-82002-1

ISSN

2194-1009

e-ISSN

2194-1017

Počet stran výsledku

30

Strana od-do

173-202

Název nakladatele

Springer

Místo vydání

Cham

Místo konání akce

Phitsanulok

Datum konání akce

17. 7. 2023

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

001478817400009