Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27740%2F13%3A86083773" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27740/13:86083773 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modelled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time.This paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the two methods: direct Monte Carlo simulation method on one hand and analytical computation method based on modeling of scenarios by the use of directed acyclic graph (DAG) on the other hand. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The pa

Název v anglickém jazyce

Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries

Popis výsledku anglicky

Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modelled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time.This paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the two methods: direct Monte Carlo simulation method on one hand and analytical computation method based on modeling of scenarios by the use of directed acyclic graph (DAG) on the other hand. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The pa

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/ED1.1.00%2F02.0070" target="_blank" >ED1.1.00/02.0070: Centrum excelence IT4Innovations</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2013

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012

ISBN

978-1-62276-436-5

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

2056-2065

Název nakladatele

Curran Associates

Místo vydání

Down

Místo konání akce

Helsinky

Datum konání akce

25. 6. 2012

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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