Risk Modelling of Personnel Fatality at Accidents on Offshore Installations

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27740%2F15%3A86095555" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27740/15:86095555 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989100:27240/15:86095555

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=7222949" target="_blank" >http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=7222949</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/DT.2015.7222949" target="_blank" >10.1109/DT.2015.7222949</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Risk Modelling of Personnel Fatality at Accidents on Offshore Installations

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Risk to safety of personnel on offshore installations is normally modelled by application of event trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent. For example, gas release is an event comprising the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This paper brings new perspective, how the risk to safety of personnel could be evaluated in dynamic context. New approach is presented whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the analytical computation method based on modeling of different accident scenarios by use of the directed acyclic graph and Fault Tree Analysis method. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry, where different sizes of leak have different probability characteristics. Specifically small, medium and large leaks are evaluated.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Risk Modelling of Personnel Fatality at Accidents on Offshore Installations

Popis výsledku anglicky

Risk to safety of personnel on offshore installations is normally modelled by application of event trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent. For example, gas release is an event comprising the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time. This paper brings new perspective, how the risk to safety of personnel could be evaluated in dynamic context. New approach is presented whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the analytical computation method based on modeling of different accident scenarios by use of the directed acyclic graph and Fault Tree Analysis method. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry, where different sizes of leak have different probability characteristics. Specifically small, medium and large leaks are evaluated.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/ED1.1.00%2F02.0070" target="_blank" >ED1.1.00/02.0070: Centrum excelence IT4Innovations</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

International Conference on Information and Digital Technologies, IDT 2015

ISBN

978-1-4673-7185-8

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

—

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

44 - 52

Název nakladatele

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

Místo vydání

New York

Místo konání akce

Žilina

Datum konání akce

7. 7. 2015

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000381481100008