On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15210%2F17%3A73580784" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15210/17:73580784 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The theoretical background for abstract formalization of the vague phenomenon of complex systems is the fuzzy set theory. In the paper, vague data is defined as specialized fuzzy sets - fuzzy numbers and there is described a fuzzy linear regression model as a fuzzy function with fuzzy numbers as vague parameters. To identify the fuzzy coefficients of the model, the genetic algorithm is used. The linear approximation of the vague function together with its possibility area is analytically and graphically expressed. A suitable application is performed in the tasks of the time series fuzzy regression analysis. The time-trend and seasonal cycles including their possibility areas are calculated and expressed. The examples are presented from the economy field, namely the time-development of unemployment, agricultural production and construction respectively between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. The results are shown in the form of the fuzzy regression models of variables of time series. For the period 2009-2011, the analysis assumptions about seasonal behaviour of variables and the relationship between them were confirmed; in 2010, the system behaved fuzzier and the relationships between the variables were vaguer, that has a lot of causes, from the different elasticity of demand, through state interventions to globalization and transnational impacts.

Název v anglickém jazyce

On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis

Popis výsledku anglicky

The theoretical background for abstract formalization of the vague phenomenon of complex systems is the fuzzy set theory. In the paper, vague data is defined as specialized fuzzy sets - fuzzy numbers and there is described a fuzzy linear regression model as a fuzzy function with fuzzy numbers as vague parameters. To identify the fuzzy coefficients of the model, the genetic algorithm is used. The linear approximation of the vague function together with its possibility area is analytically and graphically expressed. A suitable application is performed in the tasks of the time series fuzzy regression analysis. The time-trend and seasonal cycles including their possibility areas are calculated and expressed. The examples are presented from the economy field, namely the time-development of unemployment, agricultural production and construction respectively between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. The results are shown in the form of the fuzzy regression models of variables of time series. For the period 2009-2011, the analysis assumptions about seasonal behaviour of variables and the relationship between them were confirmed; in 2010, the system behaved fuzzier and the relationships between the variables were vaguer, that has a lot of causes, from the different elasticity of demand, through state interventions to globalization and transnational impacts.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Computional Methods in Social Sciences

ISSN

2344-1232

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

5

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

RO - Rumunsko

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

11-22

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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