The Mirror of Erised: a retrospective population-wide study of Czech all-cause mortality data by COVID-19 vaccination status

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15260%2F25%3A73634979" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15260/25:73634979 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989592:15310/25:73634979

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-025-23619-x#Fun" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-025-23619-x#Fun</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23619-x" target="_blank" >10.1186/s12889-025-23619-x</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Mirror of Erised: a retrospective population-wide study of Czech all-cause mortality data by COVID-19 vaccination status

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

BackgroundIn this study, we investigated the association between COVID-19 vaccination status and all-cause mortality (ACM) rate in the population of the Czech Republic between January 2020 and December 2022.MethodsIn this retrospective study based on official population-wide individual (record-level) data, we analyzed monthly ACM rates stratified by COVID-19 vaccination status, sex, and age. The ACM was compared to expected mortality based on pre-COVID data. The recipients of the Janssen vaccine were excluded from the study. The final dataset comprised N = 5,636,949 individuals from the Czech Republic, encompassing all residents born between 1925 and 1980 who were alive on January 1, 2020.ResultsMultiple peculiar patterns in ACM were revealed. The ACM of vaccinated individuals across several age cohorts was greatly diminished compared to the ACM of the unvaccinated, even in periods when virtually no COVID-19-related deaths were observed, suggesting a strong selection/indication bias. A similar drop in the ACM of newly vaccinated individuals was observed again during the booster campaign. With time from vaccination, the differences in ACM between groups with different vaccination statuses dwindled. Indication bias was observed at the beginning of the vaccination campaign when the frailest individuals were preferentially vaccinated.ConclusionsThe population-wide data strongly suggest the presence of selection/indication bias, warranting careful interpretation of vaccination effectiveness estimates derived from observational studies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Mirror of Erised: a retrospective population-wide study of Czech all-cause mortality data by COVID-19 vaccination status

Popis výsledku anglicky

BackgroundIn this study, we investigated the association between COVID-19 vaccination status and all-cause mortality (ACM) rate in the population of the Czech Republic between January 2020 and December 2022.MethodsIn this retrospective study based on official population-wide individual (record-level) data, we analyzed monthly ACM rates stratified by COVID-19 vaccination status, sex, and age. The ACM was compared to expected mortality based on pre-COVID data. The recipients of the Janssen vaccine were excluded from the study. The final dataset comprised N = 5,636,949 individuals from the Czech Republic, encompassing all residents born between 1925 and 1980 who were alive on January 1, 2020.ResultsMultiple peculiar patterns in ACM were revealed. The ACM of vaccinated individuals across several age cohorts was greatly diminished compared to the ACM of the unvaccinated, even in periods when virtually no COVID-19-related deaths were observed, suggesting a strong selection/indication bias. A similar drop in the ACM of newly vaccinated individuals was observed again during the booster campaign. With time from vaccination, the differences in ACM between groups with different vaccination statuses dwindled. Indication bias was observed at the beginning of the vaccination campaign when the frailest individuals were preferentially vaccinated.ConclusionsThe population-wide data strongly suggest the presence of selection/indication bias, warranting careful interpretation of vaccination effectiveness estimates derived from observational studies.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

30304 - Public and environmental health

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EH22_008%2F0004583" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004583: Excelentní výzkum v oblasti digitálních technologií a wellbeingu</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH

ISSN

1471-2458

e-ISSN

1471-2458

Svazek periodika

25

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

nestránkováno

Kód UT WoS článku

001526960400005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105010417635