Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985556%3A_____%2F12%3A00385822" target="_blank" >RIV/67985556:_____/12:00385822 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11230/12:10295843

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In our paper, we focus on the credit risk quantification methodology. We demonstrate that the current regulatory standards for credit risk management are at least not perfect. Generalizing the well-known KMV model, standing behind Basel II, we build a model of a loan portfolio involving a dynamics of the com- mon factor, influencing the borrowers? assets, which we allow to be non-normal. We show how the parameters of our model may be estimated by means of past mortgage delinquency rates. We give statistical evidence that the non-normal model is much more suitable than the one which assumes the normal distribution of risk factors. We point out in what way the assumption that risk factors follow a normal distribution can be dangerous. Especially during volatile periods compa- rable to the current crisis, the normal-distribution-based methodology can under- estimate the impact of changes in tail losses caused by underlying risk factors.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

Popis výsledku anglicky

In our paper, we focus on the credit risk quantification methodology. We demonstrate that the current regulatory standards for credit risk management are at least not perfect. Generalizing the well-known KMV model, standing behind Basel II, we build a model of a loan portfolio involving a dynamics of the com- mon factor, influencing the borrowers? assets, which we allow to be non-normal. We show how the parameters of our model may be estimated by means of past mortgage delinquency rates. We give statistical evidence that the non-normal model is much more suitable than the one which assumes the normal distribution of risk factors. We point out in what way the assumption that risk factors follow a normal distribution can be dangerous. Especially during volatile periods compa- rable to the current crisis, the normal-distribution-based methodology can under- estimate the impact of changes in tail losses caused by underlying risk factors.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2012

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ekonomický časopis

ISSN

0013-3035

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

60

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

SK - Slovenská republika

Počet stran výsledku

19

Strana od-do

1005-1023

Kód UT WoS článku

000287979900026

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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