Climate and disease in historical urban space: evidence from 19th century Poznań, Poland

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F24%3A00581902" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/24:00581902 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/75010330:_____/24:00014526

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-137-2024" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-137-2024</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-137-2024" target="_blank" >10.5194/cp-20-137-2024</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Climate and disease in historical urban space: evidence from 19th century Poznań, Poland

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study examines the relationship between temperature levels and precipitation amounts as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. To date, the literature has not focused on the climatological epidemiology of 19th century Polish urban areas. We used individual mortality data from Poznań parish death registers between 1850 and 1900. Each deceased individual was assigned average monthly temperature values and precipitation amounts in the month of death, LAG1 (1-month-lagged) temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and place of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature levels and lagged monthly average precipitation amounts were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Climate and disease in historical urban space: evidence from 19th century Poznań, Poland

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study examines the relationship between temperature levels and precipitation amounts as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. To date, the literature has not focused on the climatological epidemiology of 19th century Polish urban areas. We used individual mortality data from Poznań parish death registers between 1850 and 1900. Each deceased individual was assigned average monthly temperature values and precipitation amounts in the month of death, LAG1 (1-month-lagged) temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and place of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature levels and lagged monthly average precipitation amounts were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate of the Past

ISSN

1814-9324

e-ISSN

1814-9332

Svazek periodika

20

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

137-150

Kód UT WoS článku

001166576800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85184051559