Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F23%3A00571580" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/23:00571580 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60076658:12310/23:43906474

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020219" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020219</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f14020219" target="_blank" >10.3390/f14020219</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We use prognostic and retrospective species distribution models based on the Random Forest machine learning method to estimate the potential range change of the dominant taiga conifer Jezo spruce (Picea jezoensis (Siebold & Zucc.) Carrière) for the year 2070 climate warming scenarios and for past climate epochs–the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~21,000 years before present) and the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (MHO) (~7000 years before the present) using the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 climate models. The current suitable climatic conditions for P. jezoensis are estimated to be 500,000 km2. Both climatic models show similar trends in past and future ranges but provide different quantitative areal estimates. During the LGM, the main part of the species range was located much further south than today at 35–45° N. Projected climate warming will cause a greater change in the distributional range of P. jezoensis than has occurred since the MHO. Overlapping climatic ranges at different times show that the Changbai Mountains, the central parts of the Japanese Alps, Hokkaido, and the Sikhote-Alin Mountains will remain suitable refugia for Jezo spruce until 2070. The establishment of artificial forest stands of P. jezoensis and intraspecific taxa in the future climate-acceptable regions may be important for the preservation of genetic diversity.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Popis výsledku anglicky

We use prognostic and retrospective species distribution models based on the Random Forest machine learning method to estimate the potential range change of the dominant taiga conifer Jezo spruce (Picea jezoensis (Siebold & Zucc.) Carrière) for the year 2070 climate warming scenarios and for past climate epochs–the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~21,000 years before present) and the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (MHO) (~7000 years before the present) using the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 climate models. The current suitable climatic conditions for P. jezoensis are estimated to be 500,000 km2. Both climatic models show similar trends in past and future ranges but provide different quantitative areal estimates. During the LGM, the main part of the species range was located much further south than today at 35–45° N. Projected climate warming will cause a greater change in the distributional range of P. jezoensis than has occurred since the MHO. Overlapping climatic ranges at different times show that the Changbai Mountains, the central parts of the Japanese Alps, Hokkaido, and the Sikhote-Alin Mountains will remain suitable refugia for Jezo spruce until 2070. The establishment of artificial forest stands of P. jezoensis and intraspecific taxa in the future climate-acceptable regions may be important for the preservation of genetic diversity.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Forests

ISSN

1999-4907

e-ISSN

1999-4907

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

219

Kód UT WoS článku

000939020600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85149040847