Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F23%3A00574207" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/23:00574207 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Alien tree species are considered both a threat to nature conservation and a base for forest management. We compiled species occurrences from biodiversity databases, forest inventories, and literature data. We modeledthe availability of potential niches using the MaxEnt method and bioclimatic variables for current conditions,2041–2060, and 2061–2080 periods. We used four climate scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP485. Theresults confirm our hypotheses that, (i) coniferous species will contract, and deciduous trees will expand theirclimatic niche, (ii) a significant part of the areas where the studied species currently occur will be outside theirclimatic optimum in the coming decades, (iii) changes in the climatic optimum distribution will be greater in the2041–2060 period than in 2061–2080. These predicted shifts are relevant for evidence-based management insites already occupied by the studied alien trees. Our results are also relevant to the development of preventionand early detection measures in areas predicted to become climatically suitable for the studied species.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

Alien tree species are considered both a threat to nature conservation and a base for forest management. We compiled species occurrences from biodiversity databases, forest inventories, and literature data. We modeledthe availability of potential niches using the MaxEnt method and bioclimatic variables for current conditions,2041–2060, and 2061–2080 periods. We used four climate scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP485. Theresults confirm our hypotheses that, (i) coniferous species will contract, and deciduous trees will expand theirclimatic niche, (ii) a significant part of the areas where the studied species currently occur will be outside theirclimatic optimum in the coming decades, (iii) changes in the climatic optimum distribution will be greater in the2041–2060 period than in 2061–2080. These predicted shifts are relevant for evidence-based management insites already occupied by the studied alien trees. Our results are also relevant to the development of preventionand early detection measures in areas predicted to become climatically suitable for the studied species.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40102 - Forestry

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

ISSN

0168-1923

e-ISSN

1873-2240

Svazek periodika

341

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

15 October

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

109650

Kód UT WoS článku

001054782800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85150785069