European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18470%2F22%3A50019575" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18470/22:50019575 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate change is an important driver of the spread of apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one of the economically most important pollinators and thus pose serious threats to the functioning of both natural ecosystems and crops. We investigated the impact of the predicted climate change in the periods 2040-2060 and 2060-2080 on the potential distribution of the European beewolf Philanthus triangulum, a specialized honeybee predator. We modelled its potential distribution using the MaxEnt method based on contemporary occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. Our model had an overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) and the threshold of occurrence probability, assessed as the point with the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (12.4%), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (7.9%) were the principal bioclimatic variables significantly affecting the potential distribution of the European beewolf. We predicted the potential distribution shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 and pessimistic RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that climate change will significantly increase the availability of European beewolf potential niches. Losses of potential niches will only affect small areas in southern Europe. Most of the anticipated changes for the period 2060-2080 will already have occurred in 2040-2060. The predicted range expansion of European beewolf suggests that occurrence and abundance of this species should be monitored.

Název v anglickém jazyce

European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate change is an important driver of the spread of apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one of the economically most important pollinators and thus pose serious threats to the functioning of both natural ecosystems and crops. We investigated the impact of the predicted climate change in the periods 2040-2060 and 2060-2080 on the potential distribution of the European beewolf Philanthus triangulum, a specialized honeybee predator. We modelled its potential distribution using the MaxEnt method based on contemporary occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. Our model had an overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) and the threshold of occurrence probability, assessed as the point with the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (12.4%), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (7.9%) were the principal bioclimatic variables significantly affecting the potential distribution of the European beewolf. We predicted the potential distribution shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 and pessimistic RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that climate change will significantly increase the availability of European beewolf potential niches. Losses of potential niches will only affect small areas in southern Europe. Most of the anticipated changes for the period 2060-2080 will already have occurred in 2040-2060. The predicted range expansion of European beewolf suggests that occurrence and abundance of this species should be monitored.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Regional Environmental Change

ISSN

1436-3798

e-ISSN

1436-378X

Svazek periodika

22

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

"Article Number: 129"

Kód UT WoS článku

000871054200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85140250364