Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F09%3A00327270" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/09:00327270 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We studied five convective events producing heavy local rainfall with the help of the numerical weather prediction model LM COSMO. The model was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. We created an ensemble of 13 forecasts by modifying initial and boundary conditions. Uncertainties in the area-related quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) were evaluated with the help of a fraction skill score that can quantify the ensemble spread and skill. The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, and the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfall. Analyses show how the forecast lead time and spatial scale influence the spread and skillvalues. Despite the different areal structures of precipitation fields, the relationships between spread and skill appear to be similar.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Popis výsledku anglicky

We studied five convective events producing heavy local rainfall with the help of the numerical weather prediction model LM COSMO. The model was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. We created an ensemble of 13 forecasts by modifying initial and boundary conditions. Uncertainties in the area-related quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) were evaluated with the help of a fraction skill score that can quantify the ensemble spread and skill. The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, and the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfall. Analyses show how the forecast lead time and spatial scale influence the spread and skillvalues. Despite the different areal structures of precipitation fields, the relationships between spread and skill appear to be similar.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)

Rok uplatnění

2009

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

93

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1-3

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

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Kód UT WoS článku

000267743900022

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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