Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00564238" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00564238 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/23:97251

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Popis výsledku anglicky

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Communications

ISSN

2041-1723

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

4894

Kód UT WoS článku

001054501000010

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85168664107