Data-driven decadal climate forecasting using Wasserstein time-series generative adversarial networks

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25410%2F25%3A39923717" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25410/25:39923717 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-023-05722-7" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-023-05722-7</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05722-7" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10479-023-05722-7</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Data-driven decadal climate forecasting using Wasserstein time-series generative adversarial networks

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Recent trends in global climate modeling, coupled with the availability of more fine-scale datasets, have opened up opportunities for deep learning-based climate prediction to improve the accuracy of predictions over traditional physics-based models. For this, however, large ensembles of data are needed. Generative models have recently proven to be a suitable solution to this problem. For a sound generative model for time-series forecasting, it is essential that temporal dynamics are preserved in that the generated data obey the original data distributions over time. Existing forecasting methods aided by generative models are not adequate for capturing such temporal relationships. Recently, generative models have been proposed that generate realistic time-series data by exploiting the combinations of unsupervised and supervised learning. However, these models suffer from instable learning and mode collapse problems. To overcome these issues, here we propose Wasserstein Time-Series Generative Adversarial Network (WTGAN), a new forecasting model that effectively imitates the dynamics of the original data by generating realistic synthetic time-series data. To validate the proposed forecasting model, we evaluate it by backtesting the challenging decadal climate forecasting problem. We show that the proposed forecasting model outperforms state-of-the- art generative models. Another advantage of the proposed model is that once WTGAN is tuned, generating time-series data is very fast, whereas standard simulators consume considerable computer time. Thus, a large amount of climate data can be generated, which can substantially improve existing data-driven climate forecasting models.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Data-driven decadal climate forecasting using Wasserstein time-series generative adversarial networks

Popis výsledku anglicky

Recent trends in global climate modeling, coupled with the availability of more fine-scale datasets, have opened up opportunities for deep learning-based climate prediction to improve the accuracy of predictions over traditional physics-based models. For this, however, large ensembles of data are needed. Generative models have recently proven to be a suitable solution to this problem. For a sound generative model for time-series forecasting, it is essential that temporal dynamics are preserved in that the generated data obey the original data distributions over time. Existing forecasting methods aided by generative models are not adequate for capturing such temporal relationships. Recently, generative models have been proposed that generate realistic time-series data by exploiting the combinations of unsupervised and supervised learning. However, these models suffer from instable learning and mode collapse problems. To overcome these issues, here we propose Wasserstein Time-Series Generative Adversarial Network (WTGAN), a new forecasting model that effectively imitates the dynamics of the original data by generating realistic synthetic time-series data. To validate the proposed forecasting model, we evaluate it by backtesting the challenging decadal climate forecasting problem. We show that the proposed forecasting model outperforms state-of-the- art generative models. Another advantage of the proposed model is that once WTGAN is tuned, generating time-series data is very fast, whereas standard simulators consume considerable computer time. Thus, a large amount of climate data can be generated, which can substantially improve existing data-driven climate forecasting models.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Annals of Operations Research

ISSN

0254-5330

e-ISSN

1572-9338

Svazek periodika

355

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

19

Strana od-do

1587-1605

Kód UT WoS článku

001111213800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85178449362